PB is happy to link to "Well Red", the blog of Dave Levy on UK politics. He quotes the PB article on Merkel's Pyrrhic victory in the following piece, where he draws parallels between Germany after the recent elections and the situation of David Cameron's government and the Tory coaltion with the Lib Dems. Thus, he concisely analyses the state of the parties in Britain with regard to the next election, to be held no later than May 7, 2015.
"Germany turns Left" (by Dave Levy)
While I was meeting up with fellow conference delegates from Lewisham on Sunday night, the results from the German general election were being forecast and announced.
CDU/CSU (Conservatives; black/blue) 311, SPD (Social Democrats; light red) 192, Die Linke (Left Party; dark red) 64, Grüne (Greens; green) 63 seats in the 18th legislature of the Bundestag (Federal Diet) of Germany |
Since the other three parties in the parliament are the Social Democrats (SDP), the Greens (Die Grüne) and the Left Party (Die Linke), as Gregor Gysi, the leader of Die Linke points out in his article in the Guardian,How serious is Germany about its democratic principles?, there is a nominal left majority since the Greens have only ever allied themselves with the SDP in government.
The likely government will be a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SDP. Gysi argues that the SDP’s historic refusal to ally with Die Linke is under challenge with the SDP and by historical necessity and that despite Merkel’s ‘victory’ there is a historic opportunity for the German left.
Further analysis of the impact in Germany’s domestic politics is carried in an article by Robert Scheele, called “Merkel’s Pyrrhic victory: the end of the „conservative-bourgeois“ neoliberal model? Will the loss of the FDP tear Germany’s conservative union of pragmatism and populism asunder?”, published in webzine called LeftEast. He argues that Merkel and the right will get their majority in the Bundestag, probably by forming a coalition with the SDP but the loss of the FDP and their replacement by the SDP will drag the weight of the new coalition leftwards. The SDP will not want to repeat their experimentation with the policy corollaries of triangulation and Merkel, although not all her party, nor her allies, is happy to try and outbid the SDP on their own turf. In fact, it’s partly Merkel’s economic populism that has led to the SDP’s failure to make inroads into her majority, together with the memories of the Schroeder SDP government’s labour law reforms. This compromise with the SDP will be made easier because she no longer has the weight of the Free Democrats who were the main exponents of market supremacy, and particularly labour market efficiencies.
Scheele argues this competition to ‘win’ the mind share as the champions of the ordinary people, workers and families will drive the dynamic of the new coalition. Scheele also points out that there is a bigger left majority in the Bundesrat, the German federal upper house which will increase the pressure on Merkel, who has a massive personal mandate, to move to the left (or centre). But while there are pressures to move to the centre, there will be opposition from the countervailing forces in parliament, their Bavarian allies, the CSU, and outside Parliament, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) who failed to enter parliament.
The result also places pressure on the Greens. They also are split between left and right, and this is based on having two seperate voting constituencies. Scheele argues that their right, are the genuine conservatives; but capable and supportive of social solidarity. They oppose development, oppose higher taxes, on wealth and property and are hawks on the issue of southern European debt restructure. He argues that many of them voted CDU this time, and that Merkel is co-opting the right Greens. The Green’s have also lost some of their left as they turn their back on pacifism and support the government’s domestic and international austerity programmes.
Scheele argues this competition to ‘win’ the mind share as the champions of the ordinary people, workers and families will drive the dynamic of the new coalition. Scheele also points out that there is a bigger left majority in the Bundesrat, the German federal upper house which will increase the pressure on Merkel, who has a massive personal mandate, to move to the left (or centre). But while there are pressures to move to the centre, there will be opposition from the countervailing forces in parliament, their Bavarian allies, the CSU, and outside Parliament, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) who failed to enter parliament.
The result also places pressure on the Greens. They also are split between left and right, and this is based on having two seperate voting constituencies. Scheele argues that their right, are the genuine conservatives; but capable and supportive of social solidarity. They oppose development, oppose higher taxes, on wealth and property and are hawks on the issue of southern European debt restructure. He argues that many of them voted CDU this time, and that Merkel is co-opting the right Greens. The Green’s have also lost some of their left as they turn their back on pacifism and support the government’s domestic and international austerity programmes.
So Merkel has a problem, she can trim left and jeopardise her relationship with CSU and empower the AfD, such an approach might encourage the Greens to support the government or she can try and co-opt the SDP into a right-wing government appeasing the CSU and giving the AfD nowhere to grow. The former strategy jeopardises the right-wing hegemony, the latter strategy will be hard with a left majority in both houses of parliament.
Scheele is obviously making a polemic, and often the left is hopelessly optimistic but he may have a correct insight, after all unlike me, he does live there, and so Merkel’s position is not as powerful as the exit polls and headlines suggest.